empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
30.05.2025 12:51 AM
Trump's Authority Has Been Seriously Undermined
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

In this review, I will try to explore why the cancellation of Donald Trump's global tariffs is more likely to be negative for the U.S. dollar than positive. At first glance, it might seem that removing trade tariffs signals the end of the Global Trade War. If the market panicked and sold the dollar on every news of escalation, the U.S. currency would surely flourish. But in reality, market participants may be guided by an entirely different logic.

What pattern emerges if we briefly list the key events surrounding the trade war? Most of Trump's decisions were highly controversial and poorly justified. He started by threatening tariffs, then imposed them on 75 countries—including targeted tariffs on automobiles, aluminum, and steel. Each time, his rationale was to "make America prosper again." If foreign car manufacturers compete with U.S. automakers and generate enormous revenue from the American market, then Trump believes trade rules should be tightened so the U.S. could collect a tax for access to its market. Is that approach fair? In my opinion, no—and that's not just my view.

Then came two months of tariff whiplash. The White House raised, suspended, threatened tariffs, or introduced "grace periods." Each of Trump's decisions gave the impression that the U.S. President was playing a video game—where, if things go wrong, you can just restart or reload your save. However, in real life, Trump's every move has serious consequences for the economy. The most recent GDP report clearly illustrated that.

This image is no longer relevant

In addition to the above, investor and trader sentiment toward the U.S. economy and government plays a major role in the dollar's performance. If the market sees erratic decisions every other day—leaving traders unsure whether to laugh or cry—can there be confidence in such a government and economy? That's why almost any shockwave headline these days is interpreted as negative for the dollar, no matter the tone. Each news item reinforces the market's view that the occupant of the White House does not prioritize markets, businesses, or consumers.

EUR/USD Wave Structure:

Based on current analysis, EUR/USD continues to build a bullish trend segment. The wave structure in the near term will depend entirely on news related to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. Wave 3 of the uptrend is forming, with targets potentially reaching the 1.25 area. Therefore, I favor buy positions with targets above 1.1572, corresponding to 423.6% Fibonacci. Of course, the de-escalation of the trade war could reverse this uptrend, but for now, there are no signs of reversal or de-escalation.

This image is no longer relevant

GBP/USD Wave Structure:

The wave picture for GBP/USD has also changed. We are now dealing with a bullish, impulsive wave. Unfortunately, under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals that will not align with wave patterns or any type of technical analysis. However, for now, the market is following the updated wave scenario. Wave 3 is in progress, with near-term targets at 1.3541 and 1.3714. So, I continue to favor longs, as the market shows no sign of another trend reversal.

Core Principles of My Analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are hard to trade and often subject to change.
  2. If you're uncertain about the market, it's better to stay out.
  3. There is no such thing as 100% certainty in market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis should be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
Transition from Aggressive to Cautious Position by the ECB The annual economic forum is currently taking place in the Portuguese town of Sintra, which explains the daily speeches by central bank heads. Most of the information being shared
Chin Zhao
00:42 2025-07-03 +02:00
1060
Fundamental analysis
USD/JPY. Yen: Interrupted Flight The USD/JPY pair dropped by 200 points over two days and on Tuesday hit a nearly four-week low, testing the support level at 142.70 (the middle line of the Bollinger
Irina Manzenko
00:38 2025-07-03 +02:00
1090
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Transition from Aggressive to Cautious Position by the ECB

The annual economic forum is currently taking place in the Portuguese town of Sintra, which explains the daily speeches by central bank heads. Most of the information being shared
Chin Zhao 00:42 2025-07-03 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Yen: Interrupted Flight

The USD/JPY pair dropped by 200 points over two days and on Tuesday hit a nearly four-week low, testing the support level at 142.70 (the middle line of the Bollinger
Irina Manzenko 00:38 2025-07-03 UTC+2

The Dollar Has Found Its Achilles' Heel

Be careful what you wish for. Euro supporters believe that EUR/USD will reach at least 1.25 by 2026. However, one must understand that while the eurozone may remain a unified
Marek Petkovich 00:38 2025-07-03 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

Recent political and economic statements are having a significant impact on the USD/JPY pair's dynamics. U.S. President Donald Trump expressed frustration over the prolonged trade talks with Japan
Irina Yanina 18:51 2025-07-02 UTC+2

Crowd sets tone, market follows

No fight. The S&P 500 managed to hit new record highs because market professionals — the so-called "smart money" — see no need to go against the prevailing momentum
Marek Petkovich 12:46 2025-07-02 UTC+2

AUD/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the AUD/USD pair is retreating slightly from the new yearly high near 0.6590 reached yesterday and is trading within a narrow range. Nevertheless, the potential for further downside appears
Irina Yanina 12:44 2025-07-02 UTC+2

USD/CHF. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CHF pair continues to trade within a narrow range above the 0.7900 level, remaining close to price levels last seen in 2011. The US dollar is showing some gains
Irina Yanina 11:58 2025-07-02 UTC+2

Investors Filled with Optimism, Driving Market Demand Higher (EUR/USD and GBP/USD Pairs May Face Corrective Declines)

Markets continue to react positively to the stabilization of the situation in the Middle East in anticipation of negotiations between Israel and Iran. Meanwhile, investors have shifted their full attention
Pati Gani 11:22 2025-07-02 UTC+2

Powell: Rates Could Be Lower If Not for Tariffs

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that the U.S. central bank would likely have cut rates further this year if President Donald Trump had not overdone it with trade tariffs
Jakub Novak 10:50 2025-07-02 UTC+2

Strong Euro Increasingly Concerns ECB Policymakers

The euro has risen significantly this year, and officials at the European Central Bank (ECB) are becoming increasingly concerned that the rapid appreciation of the currency could derail efforts
Jakub Novak 09:24 2025-07-02 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 03:00 UTC--5
Forecast for EUR/USD on July 2, 2025
11:07 2025-07-02
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 UTC--5
USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on July 2. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades
09:03 2025-07-02
Forecast
Relevance up to 22:00 UTC--5
GBP/USD Forecast for July 2, 2025
05:12 2025-07-02
Technical analysis
EUR/USD Overview – July 2: Donald Trump Pushes the "Cunning" European Union to the Edge
03:51 2025-07-02
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 22:00 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for July 2, 2025
05:12 2025-07-02
Technical analysis
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.