Trade Analysis and Tips for the British Pound

The test of the 1.3590 level coincided with the MACD indicator having already moved significantly above the zero line, which limited the pair's upward potential. Shortly thereafter, there was another test of this level, but this time it occurred while the MACD was in the overbought zone and gradually returning toward zero. This allowed for the implementation of Sell Scenario #2, continuing the downtrend. However, as you can see on the chart, no significant downward movement followed.

In the second half of the day, focus will shift to the U.S. wholesale inventory data. The minutes from the last Federal Reserve meeting will also be released. Inventory volumes typically influence short-term prospects for manufacturing activity, though their impact on exchange rates is generally limited. Much more attention will be on the Fed minutes, where investors hope to find clues about the future path of monetary policy. In particular, it will be interesting to see how committee members assess the current inflation level following the tariffs introduced by Trump. Any signs of a more aggressive policy could strengthen the dollar, while concerns about an economic slowdown could put pressure on the U.S. currency. However, it's unlikely that the minutes will reveal anything groundbreaking. Most likely, they will confirm the Fed's already known position—cautious and aiming to avoid abrupt moves.

As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on executing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy the pound at the entry point near 1.3610 (green line on the chart), targeting growth to 1.3652 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 1.3652, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, expecting a move of 30–35 points down from that level. Significant pound growth today is unlikely. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the 1.3585 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward market reversal. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.3610 and 1.3652 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound after the price breaks below 1.3585 (red line on the chart), which could lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 1.3545, where I plan to exit short positions and immediately buy in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point upward correction from that level). Sellers are likely to maintain pressure on the pair if the data is favorable.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to fall from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.3610 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward market reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 1.3585 and 1.3545 can be expected.

Chart Notes:

• Thin green line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually closing a position, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price at which the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – suggested level for placing Take Profit or manually closing a position, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it's important to use overbought and oversold zones as guidance.

Important:Beginner Forex traders must exercise great caution when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market before the release of key fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Trading without stop-losses can quickly lead to a complete loss of your deposit, especially if you don't use proper money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan like the one I presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on current market conditions are inherently a losing strategy for intraday traders.