Trade Review and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1763 occurred at a time when the MACD indicator was just beginning to move down from the zero level, which confirmed the correct entry point for selling the euro in continuation of the morning bearish trend. As a result, the pair dropped toward the target level of 1.1728.

Despite a brief rebound triggered by favorable economic news from Germany and the Eurozone, the euro came under pressure from the U.S. dollar. An increase in Germany's industrial production, signaling economic recovery, and the rise in the Sentix investor confidence index, reflecting optimistic sentiment in the region, failed to sustain euro strength. And if no one wants to buy the euro on good data, then it's time to sell further.

Given the lack of U.S. economic statistics in the second half of the day, a continued decline in EUR/USD cannot be ruled out. This data vacuum creates a favorable environment for technical factors to dominate, all of which currently favor the sellers. Moreover, the absence of fundamentals may lead to heightened volatility, as market participants become more reactive to any news or even minor rumors related to U.S.–EU trade talks. In such a setting, short-term speculative moves could have a disproportionately strong impact on EUR/USD dynamics.

As for intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Today, consider buying the euro upon reaching the price area of 1.1744 (green line on the chart), with a target of growth toward 1.1776. At 1.1776, I plan to exit the market and open a short position in the opposite direction for a 30–35 point move from the entry level. A bullish run for the euro today is unlikely.Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1718 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. Growth toward 1.1744 and 1.1776 can then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.1718 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1682, where I intend to exit the market and open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point rebound from the level). Selling pressure on the pair is expected to persist today.Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1744 price level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will cap the pair's upward potential and trigger a market reversal to the downside. A decline toward 1.1718 and 1.1682 can then be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – projected level for placing Take Profit or manually fixing profit, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important:Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of key fundamental reports to avoid sudden price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you could quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you don't practice money management and trade with large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan—such as the one presented above. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for an intraday trader.