Forex Analysis & Reviews: 17.06.2025 - GBP/USD Analysis on June 17,...

17.06.2025 09:24 PM

GBP/USD Analysis on June 17, 2025

The wave pattern on the GBP/USD chart continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulsive wave pattern. The wave layout closely mirrors that of EUR/USD, as the main driver here is the U.S. dollar. Demand for the dollar is falling across the market spectrum, resulting in similar dynamics across many instruments. Wave 2 of the upward trend segment took on a single-wave form. Within the presumed wave 3, waves 1 and 2 have been completed. Therefore, further growth of the British pound as part of wave 3 of 3 is expected—and this is what we are currently seeing.

It's important to remember that much of what happens on the forex market today depends on Donald Trump's policies—not just trade-related ones. Even positive news from the U.S. is overshadowed by market concerns over economic uncertainty, contradictory decisions by Trump, and the White House's hostile and protectionist stance. The dollar now struggles to convert even good news into buying pressure, and so far, it has failed to do so.

GBP/USD dropped 100 basis points in the second half of Tuesday. On Wednesday evening, Jerome Powell will announce the outcome of the Fed's fourth policy meeting of 2025, followed by the Bank of England's decision the next day. One doesn't need to be a genius to forecast the likely market reaction. So far in 2025, the U.S. dollar has only been weakening. The Fed has not implemented a single round of monetary easing, and its rate remains at 4.5%. In contrast, the Bank of England has cut rates twice this year, while the ECB has done so four times.

According to traditional fundamentals, this should have led to increased demand for the dollar—not the pound or the euro. But reality tells a different story.

Donald Trump's policies have discouraged market participants from buying U.S. dollars. The U.S. dollar is no longer seen as a "safe haven" or "the world's #1 currency." Demand for it is steadily declining, which is why central bank policy decisions now have little influence on market sentiment. Participants understand that even if the Fed hikes rates, it won't redirect capital back to the U.S. That wouldn't cancel out the chaos Trump has fostered during the first four months of his second term. So far, there are no tangible positive results from his administration—just one trade deal with the UK, which seems more like a consolation prize than a major win. Perhaps I'm getting ahead of myself, and more victories will eventually restore confidence in the dollar. But for now, the dollar could find support only against the odds—or by sheer bad luck ("Murphy's Law").

Conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains intact: a bullish impulsive segment is forming. Under Donald Trump's leadership, markets may yet face many shocks and trend reversals that defy both wave theory and technical analysis. But for now, the active scenario remains valid, and Trump's policies continue to suppress demand for the dollar. The target for wave 3 lies around 1.3708, which corresponds to the 200.0% Fibonacci extension of the presumed global wave 2. I therefore continue to consider buying opportunities, as the market shows no signs of reversing the current trend.

On the higher wave scale, the structure has also shifted into a bullish pattern. A new upward trend segment is likely unfolding, although it does not yet appear complete. For now, continued growth remains the most likely scenario.

Key Principles of My Analysis

Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex patterns are difficult to trade and often lead to sudden changes.
If there's uncertainty in the market, it's better to stay out.
There is never 100% certainty in price direction. Always use Stop Loss orders.
Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.

You have already liked this post today

*El análisis de mercado publicado aquí tiene la finalidad de incrementar su conocimiento, más no darle instrucciones para realizar una operación.