Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around the key $4,600 level on Thursday, approaching the weekly low recorded the previous day. However, the metal is showing resilience below the 9-day EMA, as downward pressure remains limited while traders prefer to wait for a speech by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday for guidance on the future course of Fed monetary policy. This outlook, in turn, will have a significant impact on the U.S. dollar's dynamics and substantially affect the price of the precious metal.

Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data released on Wednesday slightly increased expectations of at least one Fed rate hike by the end of the current year. In particular, data released by the Department of Commerce showed that the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index remained at 3.7% year-on-year as of July, above analysts' expectations. The core reading, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also remained at 3.3%. This indicates that inflation remains persistent and is likely to intensify discussions about the need to raise interest rates or keep them at current levels.

Despite the hawkish expectations surrounding the Fed, U.S. Treasury yields remain low due to the U.S. Treasury's bond-buying strategy. Optimism over a possible peace agreement between the United States and Iran, as well as the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, is also limiting the U.S. dollar's upside and supporting gold prices. Moreover, media reports indicate that the United States and Iran have reached a new ceasefire agreement that will be announced in the coming days. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also said that an agreement had been reached with Oman regarding a temporary maritime route for vessels using this route, but warned that the strait would not be fully reopened until the United States fulfills its obligations under the temporary peace agreement signed in June. This creates an elevated geopolitical risk premium, which in turn supports oil and U.S. dollar prices as safe-haven assets, limiting gold's upside.

Therefore, it would be reasonable to wait for a strong resurgence in buying activity and a confident move above $4,700, or the August high, before taking positions in anticipation of a continuation of the XAU/USD uptrend observed since the beginning of the month.

From a technical perspective, the precious metal has a short-term bullish bias, trading above the 200-day SMA. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is close to the overbought zone, indicating the possibility of a correction, while the MACD indicator remains in positive territory. Taken together, these indicators suggest that the upward momentum is still intact but is becoming increasingly stretched.

Against this backdrop, it would be reasonable to wait for a move above $4,700, or the August high, before opening positions for further upside. A continuation of the upward move could push the gold price toward the key $4,750 level.

On the other hand, the 9-day EMA continues to provide support against near-term downside. A deeper correction could bring the price toward $4,500, or the 200-day SMA. A break below this level would weaken the bullish case.