Analysis of Trades and Trading Tips for the Euro

The price test at 1.1678 occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero line, confirming a valid entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair failed to decline, resulting in a loss being recorded.

Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the imposition of 30% tariffs on goods from the European Union, which immediately impacted the currency markets. The euro came under significant pressure, while the dollar, on the contrary, received support and strengthened. The decision by the U.S. president sparked a wave of criticism and concern within European political and economic circles. Many experts fear that this move could trigger a trade war between the U.S. and the EU, which would negatively affect the global economy as a whole. Brussels has already declared its readiness to implement retaliatory measures should the U.S. tariffs be enacted. Intense negotiations between U.S. and EU representatives are expected in the coming days, aimed at resolving the trade dispute. The outcome of these talks will be decisive for the future relationship between the world's two largest economic blocs.

Today is light on economic data, with the Eurogroup meeting being the main focus. It is likely that countermeasures against U.S. policy and the prospects for further trade cooperation will be discussed there. This is the key factor that will influence the short-term trajectory of the euro.

For intraday strategy, I will focus primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenario

Scenario #1: Buying the euro today is possible if the price reaches the area of 1.1672 (green line on the chart), with a target for growth toward 1.1717. At the 1.1717 level, I plan to exit the market and also open a short position, aiming for a 30–35 point pullback from the entry point. Any upside in the euro today should be viewed as a corrective move.

Important! Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1651 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to a reversal to the upside. A rise toward the opposite levels of 1.1672 and 1.1717 can be expected.

Sell Scenario

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches the 1.1651 level (red line on the chart), targeting 1.1610, where I intend to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction (anticipating a 20–25 point rebound). Downward pressure on the pair may return at any moment today.

Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 1.1672 level, at a time when the MACD indicator is in overbought territory. This will limit the pair's upside potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A drop toward the opposite levels of 1.1651 and 1.1610 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• The thin green line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be bought.
• The thick green line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price growth above this level is unlikely.
• The thin red line represents the entry price where the trading instrument can be sold.
• The thick red line indicates the expected price level where a Take Profit order can be placed, or profits can be manually secured, as further price decline below this level is unlikely.
• The MACD indicator should be used to assess overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important Notes:

• Beginner Forex traders should exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. It is advisable to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid exposure to sharp price fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly wipe out your entire deposit, especially if you neglect money management principles and trade with high volumes.
• Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined trading plan, similar to the one outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for intraday traders.