Trade Analysis and Guidance for the Japanese Yen

A price test at 144.97 occurred while the MACD was already far above the zero line, which prevented Scenario #1 (selling the dollar) from playing out. A second test of that price, with the MACD in oversold territory, triggered Scenario #2 for buying the dollar, but a major rally in the pair did not follow.

In the second half of the day, two key factors could significantly influence market sentiment: strong U.S. Consumer Confidence data and a firm stance from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in favor of maintaining high interest rates. The market's close attention to Powell's remarks stems from his hawkish rhetoric's ability to counteract the negative sentiment caused by recession fears. Investors are hoping for clear signals from the Fed chief about the regulator's future policy. If he confirms a readiness to fight inflation even at the expense of economic growth, it would likely support the dollar and exert downward pressure on other currencies, including the British pound.

The release of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index could also be a deciding factor in setting the market's next direction. A reading above expectations would strengthen confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy and support the dollar. Conversely, weak data may heighten recession fears and trigger risk-off sentiment.

As for intraday strategy, I will primarily rely on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY at the entry point around 145.17 (thin green line on the chart), with a target at 145.66 (thick green line on the chart). At 145.66, I will exit long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point pullback. A strong rise in the pair is possible today only if the U.S. data turns out strong.Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if two consecutive tests of 144.84 occur while the MACD is in oversold territory. This would limit the downward potential and lead to a market reversal to the upside. A rise toward 145.17 and 145.66 could then be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY after it breaks below 144.84 (thin red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a rapid decline. The main bearish target is 144.24, where I will exit short positions and open longs in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point rebound. However, a return of bearish pressure is unlikely today.Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if two consecutive tests of 145.17 occur while the MACD is in overbought territory. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 144.84 and 144.24 can be expected.

What's on the Chart:

• Thin green line – Entry price for buying the instrument
• Thick green line – Suggested Take Profit level or profit-taking area; further growth is unlikely above this level
• Thin red line – Entry price for selling the instrument
• Thick red line – Suggested Take Profit level or profit-taking area; further decline is unlikely below this level
• MACD Indicator – Entry decisions should be guided by overbought and oversold zones

Important Note for Beginner Traders:

Beginner Forex traders must be very cautious when entering the market. It's best to stay out of the market ahead of major fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you can quickly lose your entire deposit — especially if you're not using money management and are trading large volumes.

Remember: Successful trading requires a clear and structured trading plan like the one provided above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for any intraday trader.