25.06.202506:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on June 25? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

There are no macroeconomic reports scheduled for Wednesday. Over the past two days, we have witnessed a significant rally in both the euro and the pound, driven by a new decline in the dollar. However, volatility began to decrease yesterday (especially for the euro), so today (unless new high-impact news emerges), the market may take a pause. The euro and the pound have updated their 3-year highs and are generally ready to continue rising against the dollar. The Middle East conflict has supported the dollar several times over the past two weeks, but even with its help, the U.S. currency has failed to show significant growth. This week's speeches by Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde, and Andrew Bailey have not provided any new information.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

Only Powell's second testimony before the U.S. Congress stands out among Wednesday's fundamental events. As a reminder, the first testimony took place yesterday, during which the Fed Chair merely repeated all the points that the market has long been familiar with: the key interest rate will not be lowered in the near future; the central bank is waiting to see the full effect of the U.S.'s new trade policy on the economy; and a spike in inflation is expected. It is unlikely that Powell will say anything new today.

For the market, the trade war remains the most significant issue, with no signs of its conclusion in sight. Almost all recent developments have exerted pressure on the U.S. dollar in one way or another. The dollar might have hoped for support amid the Israel-Iran conflict, but it has already extracted all the benefits it could from that situation. If the market does not view the dollar as a "safe-haven asset," then even in times of geopolitical tension, the currency will not appreciate.

Conclusions:

On the third trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to rise, as the Middle East war has ended while the global trade war continues. In the near future, it will become clear whether the U.S. will sign a trade agreement with any country besides the United Kingdom. Many interesting events lie ahead, but today, the news calendar is empty.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

1. Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
2. False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
4. Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
5. MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
6. Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
7. Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.