On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Thursday rebounded from the 50.0% retracement level at 1.3579, reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar, and consolidated below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.3530. Therefore, the decline may continue today toward the next retracement level at 76.4% – 1.3470. A rebound from this level would favor the pound and a renewed rise toward the 1.3530 level. A firm move below 1.3470 would increase the likelihood of further decline toward 1.3425.

The wave pattern has shifted in favor of the bulls, as expected. Several downward waves were formed, each breaking below the low of the previous wave. Currently, the last upward wave has broken through the highs of the two previous waves, breaking not just a bearish trend but a bearish corrective pullback. In the near term, I expect prices to rise based on the wave structure.

The news background on Thursday was quite negative for the pound. The UK Services PMI fell from 52.8 to 51.2 points, while traders were expecting 53.0. The Manufacturing PMI rose from 47.7 to 48.2 points, which is hardly cause for celebration, as the figure remains below the 50.0 threshold. This morning, another disappointing report was released—retail sales. Although sales volumes rose in June, the increase was not as strong as expected. As a result, bears were active yesterday and today, but the trend remains bullish. In the near future, I will be watching for buy signals. The 1.3470 level looks very attractive for a rebound, as the price has already bounced from it three times previously.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair continues its decline overall, but after a bullish divergence formed, it reversed in favor of the pound and rebounded from the support zone of 1.3378–1.3435. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.3795. The hourly chart also allows for the continuation of the bullish trend. A new emerging divergence in the CCI indicator also signals the potential for further growth.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

Sentiment among the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bullish over the past reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 7,039, while the number of short positions fell by 3,036. However, the bears have long lost their advantage in the market and currently have no real chance of success. The gap between the number of long and short positions stands at 30,000 in favor of the bulls: 101,000 versus 71,000.

In my view, the pound still faces potential for a decline, but the events of 2025 have significantly shifted the long-term outlook. Over the past four months, the number of long positions has increased from 65,000 to 101,000, while short positions have fallen from 76,000 to 71,000. The changes aren't as drastic as in the case of the euro, but they are notable. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and COT reports show that traders are reluctant to buy the dollar. Therefore, regardless of the general news background, the dollar continues to decline amid developments surrounding Donald Trump.

News Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:

• United Kingdom – Retail Sales Volume Change (06:00 UTC)
• United States – Durable Goods Orders Change (12:30 UTC)

On Friday, the economic calendar includes two entries, one of which has already been released. The impact of the news background on trader sentiment for the rest of the day may be limited.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

I do not recommend selling the pair today, as I believe the dollar has already overextended its move. Buying opportunities were available at the rebound from the 1.3357–1.3371 zone and at the close above 1.3470, targeting 1.3530 and 1.3579. All of these targets have been met. New long positions are possible today on a rebound from the 1.3470 level, targeting 1.3530 and 1.3579.

The Fibonacci grids are constructed from 1.3371–1.3787 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.