News from the United States and Japan is significantly impacting the price dynamics of the precious metal. President Donald Trump announced the conclusion of a major trade deal with Japan, which includes mutual tariffs of 15% and the opening of the Japanese market to a range of goods, including automobiles, rice, and other agricultural products. This positive news has sparked a new wave of global trade activity and reduced demand for safe-haven assets such as gold.

Additionally, a modest rebound in the US dollar from a two-week low reached on Tuesday is contributing to capital outflows from gold.

At the same time, President Trump continues to push for interest rate cuts and has publicly called for the resignation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has once again emphasized the need for a comprehensive review of the Fed's operations, heightening concerns about the central bank's independence. These factors are preventing dollar bulls from gaining traction and are adding uncertainty to the currency market.

Uncertainty surrounding future tariffs and trade deals is pressuring traders and could serve as an additional supportive factor for gold prices, preventing a sharp decline.

Today, the XAU/USD pair may take cues from the release of US existing home sales data. However, primary focus should be on the preliminary PMI indices, which could influence overall risk sentiment.

From a technical perspective, this week's breakout above the horizontal barrier of 3365–3370 level and the subsequent move beyond that range—and above the psychological level of 3400—have been viewed as key bullish signals. Oscillators on the daily chart remain firmly in positive territory and are still far from the oversold zone. Therefore, any pullback can be seen as a buying opportunity near the round number of 3400. However, renewed selling could invalidate the bullish outlook and send prices back toward the breakout point at 3360.

On the other hand, the Asian session high near 3438–3439 is the immediate barrier ahead of the July peak around 3450–3451. A sustained move above this zone would open the path for a retest of the all-time high near the psychological level of 3500, reached in April.