As of yesterday's close, US stock indices ended mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.06%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.39%. The industrial Dow Jones gained 0.40%.

The record-breaking rally in global equities received a fresh boost after the US reached a trade agreement with Japan — a key trading partner — easing fears of a tariff war. The deal, accompanied by promises of Japanese investment in the American economy, not only energized the markets but also raised new questions about the future of global trade. However, behind the initial euphoria lies the need for a detailed analysis of its long-term consequences. The key question: Can this agreement serve as a precedent for similar deals with other Asian countries, or will it remain an isolated success? Equally important is assessing the domestic risks, particularly the potential rise in inflation. Stimulating the economy through investment and reducing trade barriers could increase consumer demand, which in turn may fuel price growth. Japan's regulator will need to remain especially vigilant to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control.

The Asian stock index jumped nearly 2%, reaching a four-year high, which helped the MSCI Global Stock Index increase its 2025 gains to 11%. S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% after the index closed at a new record high on Tuesday. Futures on European indices also climbed 1.2%. The US dollar index strengthened, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries grew by three basis points to 4.37%.

After months of uncertainty, the latest tariff agreements by Trump are beginning to clarify the broader contours of a new trade landscape for the world's largest manufacturing region. As mentioned above, the US president announced a deal with Japan that sets a 15% import tariff, including on cars. Under the agreement, America's key ally will also invest $550 billion in the US economy. The US–Japan deal creates a tactical precedent for all of Asia, especially for economies still in negotiations with the Trump administration. By accepting a diluted 15% tariff and promising symbolic investments, Japan signaled that it's possible to make concessions sufficient to avoid escalation, without triggering deep structural reforms.

The US also reached an agreement with the Philippines to impose a 19% tariff on the country's exports. Initially, Trump had set a 17% rate for the US ally back in April, but later suspended it to allow time for negotiations. Earlier this month, he threatened to raise it to 20%.

Additionally, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that he would meet with his Chinese counterparts next week for another round of trade talks in Stockholm, and would work on a possible extension of the current negotiation deadline, August 12. Bessent noted that talks with China may now cover a broader range of topics, including Beijing's ongoing purchases of "sanctioned" oil from Russia and Iran.

Regarding the technical outlook for the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today is to break through the nearest resistance at 6,331. This would signal further growth and open the path to a potential breakout toward 6,343. An equally important objective for the bulls is to hold control above 6,355, which would further strengthen buyer positions. In the event of a downside move amid declining risk appetite, buyers must show strength around the 6,320 level. A break below this would likely send the index quickly back to 6,308 and open the road to 6,296.