Judging by recent comments from several Federal Reserve officials, the committee has yet to reach a consensus on interest rate policy. While some members continue to stress the need to maintain a tight monetary policy to combat persistently high inflation, others are increasingly warning about the risks of excessive tightening, which could lead to a recession.

This divergence of views is creating significant uncertainty in the markets. On one hand, investors fear a prolonged wait-and-see stance, which could negatively affect corporate profits and drag down the stock market. On the other hand, there are concerns that the Fed may abandon the fight against inflation too early, leading to further price increases and a weakening of the dollar. Under such circumstances, decision-making becomes particularly complex. The Fed must not only balance the need to contain inflation with the goal of supporting economic growth, but also clearly communicate its position. Any misstep could have serious consequences for both the U.S. and global economies.

Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler stated that the U.S. central bank should keep interest rates at their current level for some time, citing accelerating inflation driven by Donald Trump's trade policies.

"Given the continued strength in employment within our mandate, historically low unemployment, elevated short-term inflation expectations, and rising goods inflation driven by upward pressure from tariffs, I find it appropriate to maintain our key interest rate at its current level for a while longer," Kugler said Thursday in a speech prepared for an event in Washington organized by the Housing Partnership Network. "This still-restrictive stance is important to keep long-term inflation expectations anchored," she added.

Her statement, delivered amid rising concerns over persistent inflationary pressures, highlights the differing views within the Fed regarding future policy actions. According to Kugler, the protectionist measures promoted by Trump could trigger new price shocks. Higher tariffs and import restrictions typically lead to increased costs for goods and services, which in turn fuels inflation. Given the Fed's current efforts to bring inflation down to its 2% target, such a scenario is clearly undesirable.

The Fed thus faces a difficult choice that requires careful analysis of the current economic environment and the potential consequences of future political decisions. This year, the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, despite inflation data coming in weaker than expected, as it awaits the full impact of tariffs introduced by President Donald Trump. Kugler joined several other policymakers last week in voicing her reluctance to consider rate cuts at this stage.

As for the current technical outlook for EUR/USD, buyers now need to focus on breaking through the 1.1655 level. Only this would allow for a move toward 1.1690. From there, a push toward 1.1720 is possible, although this will be difficult without support from major players. The ultimate target would be the 1.1770 high. If the instrument declines, significant buying activity is expected only around the 1.1615 level. If there is no support there, it may be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1580 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1560.

As for GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3442. Only then can they aim for 1.3481, which will be difficult to overcome. The furthest target would be the 1.3532 level. In the event of a decline, the bears will attempt to regain control around 1.3405. If successful, a breakout below that range would deal a serious blow to the bulls and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3368 low, with the potential to reach 1.3336.