The fate of the British pound will also lie within the realm of the "four global themes": the standoff between Trump and Powell, new U.S. trade deals, Trump's new tariffs, and wave structure analysis. I'd like to remind readers that in recent months, we've seen relatively clear and aesthetically pleasing wave formations on the charts—something that doesn't happen often. In textbooks on wave (or any other type of) analysis, all structures look neat and well-defined. In practice, though, well-formed structures appear in only about 50% of cases. So when a clear and understandable structure forms, it would be a shame not to use it.

Typically, the second half of each month tends to be less eventful than the first. In the UK next week, preliminary July business activity indices will be released, which are certainly of interest but not of major importance to the market. There will also be a retail sales report. These figures may have only a slight influence on market sentiment.

Based on this, I expect increased demand for the British pound, as the wave structure suggests. There might be no news at all next week on any of the four "global themes." Trump has been trying for months to fire Powell or find a way to get him to resign voluntarily, but so far without success. Trade deals are being signed at a pace of one per month, at best. Over the past two weeks, Trump has announced tariff increases on more than 20 countries, so it is unlikely that there will be any new tariffs. As a result, while next week is potentially very interesting, it may be dreadfully boring in practice.

In my opinion, the most reasonable approach now is to wait for the corrective structure to be completed. It may even consist of a single wave, as has already happened within the current bullish trend segment. Therefore, it's important to remember that the recent rise in the dollar is not entirely logical or sustainable. It may end just as suddenly and easily. Thus, from current levels, I would recommend starting to look for new buying opportunities—provided there are confirming signals indicating a renewed rise in the pound.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news flow, particularly decisions from Trump and U.S. foreign policy, and there have been no positive developments yet. The target levels for this trend segment may extend up to the 1.2500 area. Accordingly, I view buying opportunities with targets near the 1.1875 level, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and potentially higher. A corrective wave set is expected to form in the near term, so new euro purchases should follow once this correction is complete.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward segment of the trend are now near the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci of the presumed global wave 2. Currently, a corrective wave set is being formed. Traditionally, this should consist of three waves.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are often subject to change.
2. If you're not confident about market conditions, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.