The upcoming week promises to be an interesting one. Market participants are about to get answers to several key questions. First, will there be an upward corrective wave as part of the broader downward corrective structure? Second, what new trade tariffs will Donald Trump announce? Third, what will be the outcome of the allegations against Jerome Powell regarding fraud in the reconstruction of Federal Reserve buildings? And fourth, how many trade deals will the U.S. sign ahead of the next deadline in Trump's negotiations?

In my opinion, these four topics will be decisive for all instruments in the currency market. Consider this: over the past six months, the market has reacted most strongly to global themes with long-term implications, rather than to central bank rate decisions or standard economic reports. Therefore, while the usual news flow will matter, the four topics mentioned above could easily overshadow everything else.

In the Eurozone's economic calendar, the primary focus is on the preliminary business activity indices for July. Additionally, the next European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is scheduled for next week, although it is attracting little interest. For the first time in a year, the ECB is expected to leave all three key interest rates unchanged. Inflation in the Eurozone has slowed considerably, and interest rates are now close to "neutral." The Eurozone is cautious that economic uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policy may trigger another wave of inflation acceleration, so officials want to wait until negotiations between Brussels and Washington are concluded to clearly understand which tariffs will be in place on both sides.

I believe the ECB will not resume monetary policy easing unless there is complete clarity regarding trade relations between the U.S. and the EU. Based on all of the above, I advise my readers to rely on the current wave structure and keep a close eye on the global themes that could trigger significant market volatility.

Wave Structure for EUR/USD:

Based on my analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward segment of the trend. The wave structure still entirely depends on the news flow, particularly decisions from Trump and U.S. foreign policy, and there have been no positive developments yet. The target levels for this trend segment may extend up to the 1.2500 area. Accordingly, I view buying opportunities with targets near the 1.1875 level, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and potentially higher. A corrective wave set is expected to form in the near term, so new euro purchases should follow once this correction is complete.

Wave Structure for GBP/USD:

The wave structure for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with a bullish, impulsive segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, the markets may face many more shocks and reversals, which could significantly impact the wave pattern, but for now, the working scenario remains intact. The targets for the upward segment of the trend are now near the 1.4017 level, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibonacci of the presumed global wave 2. Currently, a corrective wave set is being formed. Traditionally, this should consist of three waves.

Key Principles of My Analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and are often subject to change.
2. If you're not confident about market conditions, it's better to stay out.
3. There is never 100% certainty in market direction. Don't forget to use protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.