On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair traded sideways on Friday. Today, a new rebound from the support zone of 1.3611–1.3633 could give traders hope for a reversal in favor of the British pound and a rise toward the 200.0% Fibonacci level at 1.3749. A consolidation below the 1.3611–1.3633 zone would increase the likelihood of a continued decline in the pound toward the 127.2% retracement level at 1.3527.

The wave structure indicates a continued bullish trend. The last completed upward wave broke above the peak of the previous one, while the new downward wave didn't even approach the last low. Bearish traders still see no reason to form their own trend, and the dollar has very little fundamental support. Trump's trade war continues to weigh heavily on the U.S. currency.

Although there were no major events in either the U.S. or the UK on Friday, there are still market-relevant topics—how could it be otherwise with Trump? Perhaps the most intriguing subject right now is the creation of a new political party in the U.S., which, according to Elon Musk's plan, should compete with the Democratic and Republican parties. Musk made this decision after the Republicans approved Trump's "One Big Bill," which includes tax cuts, reduced spending on various healthcare programs, and increased funding for defense and immigration services. Musk had publicly warned Trump that he would openly oppose the Republicans if the bill passed. However, as of now, all we know is that the head of Tesla and SpaceX has expressed a desire to create a new party. How long it will take—or whether it's even possible, considering Trump's alleged intention to deport the billionaire—is unclear. For traders today, the key level is 1.3611–1.3633, not the news background. In my view, bears will continue to struggle to launch effective attacks.

On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar just a few points short of the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795. Since the decline was unexpected and may end quickly, I believe it's better to analyze the hourly chart for now. No emerging divergences are seen on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category became less bullish in the latest reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,434, while short positions increased by 2,028. However, bears have long lost their advantage in the market and stand no chance of success. The gap between long and short positions is 35,000 in favor of the bulls: 100,000 vs. 65,000.

In my view, the pound still faces downside risks, but events in 2025 have completely shifted the long-term market direction. Over the past three months, the number of long positions rose from 65,000 to 100,000, while short positions fell from 76,000 to 65,000. Under Donald Trump, confidence in the dollar has weakened, and COT reports show that traders have little desire to buy it. Therefore, regardless of the general news background, the dollar continues to fall amid the events surrounding Trump.

News Calendar for the U.S. and UK:

The economic calendar for Monday contains no significant entries. The information background will have no impact on traders' sentiment today.

GBP/USD Forecast and Trader Tips:

Selling the pair was possible on a rebound from the 1.3749 level with a target of 1.3611–1.3633. That target has been reached. New selling opportunities arise if the price closes below the 1.3611–1.3633 zone, with a target of 1.3527. Buying opportunities appear on a rebound from the 1.3611–1.3633 zone on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3749.

The Fibonacci level grids are built from 1.3446 to 1.3139 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431 to 1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.