empty
30.06.2025 12:24 PM
EUR/USD. June 30th. What to Expect from Christine Lagarde's Speech?

On Friday, the EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement. The 127.2% retracement level at 1.1712 proved relatively weak; however, a close above it still allows for the expectation of further growth toward the next level at 1.1802. A move back below 1.1712 will not be considered a strong sell signal. Bears continue to retreat from the market, while bulls maintain their offensive.

This image is no longer relevant

The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed downward wave broke the low of the previous wave, while the new upward wave surpassed the previous peak. Thus, the trend has once again turned bullish. The lack of progress in U.S.–China and U.S.–EU negotiations keeps bears hesitant, the FOMC meeting did not help the U.S. dollar, and the Middle East conflict brought no benefit either. As expected, the bearish trend did not prove strong or lasting.

The news background on Friday was weak, offering no meaningful support to either bulls or bears. Currently, bears have very little to rely on in terms of news support. Almost all U.S. data is negative—at least for the dollar. As a result, everything comes down to whether bullish traders will receive new support on any given day. If they do, the upward move continues; if not, bulls simply wait.

Today, the most important event is a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. She may once again hint at the end of monetary policy easing, as inflation has stabilized around 2%. Despite the fact that rate cuts have persisted for over a year, this is no longer an issue for bulls in 2025. They continue to buy the euro even amid ECB rate cuts. Although investment conditions in Europe are becoming less attractive, the overall situation and political climate in the U.S. are even worse. Therefore, whatever Lagarde says today is unlikely to affect bullish sentiment.

This image is no longer relevant

On the 4-hour chart, the pair has risen to the 1.1680 level and consolidated above it, which allows for the expectation of further growth toward the next Fibonacci retracement level of 161.8% at 1.1851. A move back below 1.1680 would support the U.S. currency and indicate a decline toward the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicators.

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:

This image is no longer relevant

During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 2,980 long positions and closed 6,602 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish—thanks to Donald Trump—and continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 224,000, while short positions amount to 112,000. The gap (with few exceptions) continues to widen. Thus, demand for the euro remains strong, while the dollar is being ignored. The situation remains unchanged.

For twenty-one consecutive weeks, large market players have been reducing short positions and increasing longs. The divergence in monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is significant, but Donald Trump's policies have become a more critical factor for traders, as they risk causing a recession in the U.S. economy along with a host of other long-term, structural problems for the country.

News Calendar for the U.S. and EU:

  • Eurozone – Germany Retail Sales Change (06:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone – Germany Consumer Price Index (12:00 UTC)
  • Eurozone – Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde (19:00 UTC)

On June 30, the economic calendar includes three relatively minor events. Therefore, while news may influence market sentiment slightly, the impact is expected to be limited on Monday.

EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:

Selling the pair today should only be considered in the event of a bounce down from the 1.1802 level on the hourly chart or a close below 1.1680 on the 4-hour chart. I previously recommended buying on a bounce from the 1.1454 level, targeting 1.1574, 1.1645, and 1.1712. Additional buying opportunities became available after a close above 1.1712, with a target at 1.1802.

The Fibonacci level grids are drawn from 1.1574–1.1066 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.

Samir Klishi,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

EUR/USD Forecast for July 11, 2025

EUR/USD On the weekly chart, we observe a set of reversal signals: divergence, a trend shift in the Fibonacci time zone, and a price rebound from the intersection

Laurie Bailey 06:58 2025-07-11 UTC+2

GBP/USD Forecast for July 11, 2025

GBP/USD On the monthly chart, the British pound reversed from the 161.8% Fibonacci reaction level, calculated from the upper boundary of the global 18-year price channel, immediately after

Laurie Bailey 06:46 2025-07-11 UTC+2

USD/CAD Forecast for July 11, 2025

USD/CAD The Canadian dollar had been consolidating for three days before today's upward breakout during the Pacific session. The price has already pierced the balance line with its upper shadow

Laurie Bailey 06:42 2025-07-11 UTC+2

Forecast for EUR/USD on July 10, 2025

On Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair continued to move along a trajectory known only to itself. The 127.2% Fibonacci correction level at 1.1712 was once again ignored by traders. I still

Samir Klishi 12:21 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Forecast for GBP/USD on July 10, 2025

On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair continued its upward movement on Wednesday after rebounding from the 127.2% Fibonacci corrective level at 1.3527. The rebound was precise, leading

Samir Klishi 10:35 2025-07-10 UTC+2

GBP/JPY. Analysis, Forecast, and Current Market Situation

On Thursday, the GBP/JPY pair is regaining upward momentum and shows readiness for further growth. The formation of an ascending channel confirms the stability of the bullish trend. During

Irina Yanina 10:22 2025-07-10 UTC+2

If the resistance level of 0.7964 holds back its upward movement, USD/CHF has the potential to weaken on Thursday, July 10, 2025.

USD/CHF, Thursday, July 10, 2025 In addition to rumors of a planned Fed interest rate cut and falling US government bond yields, USD/CHF weakened today. Key Levels 1. Resistance

Arief Makmur 06:47 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Cable has the potential to test its Pivot and Support 1 levels in the near future, Thursday, July 10, 2025.

GBP/USD, Thursday, July 10, 2025. Rumors of the Fed's future dovish policy have created negative sentiment towards the USD, potentially helping the pound sterling strengthen again today. Key Levels

Arief Makmur 06:47 2025-07-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD Forecast for July 10, 2025

Markets continue to test risk-on strategies—yesterday, the S&P 500 rose by 0.61%, oil slipped by 0.22%, and the euro declined by just 4 points, which, given the low daily volatility

Laurie Bailey 06:14 2025-07-10 UTC+2

Trading Signals for GOLD (XAU/USD) for July 10-15, 2025: sell below $3,330 (21 SMA - 200 EMA)

If the bullish momentum prevails, we should buy gold above the 200 EMA located at 3,324. The outlook could be positive, with the price reaching 3,450 in the short term

Dimitrios Zappas 06:10 2025-07-10 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.