empty
19.06.2025 08:20 PM
GBP/USD Analysis on June 19, 2025

This image is no longer relevant

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulsive wave structure. The wave pattern is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD, since the U.S. dollar is the main driver across the market. Demand for the dollar is falling across the board, which is why many instruments are displaying similar dynamics. Wave 2 of the uptrend has taken the form of a single-wave structure. Waves 1 and 2 have been formed within the expected wave 3, so we should now expect the continuation of the British pound's rise as part of wave 3 of 3, which is currently underway.

It's important to keep in mind that much in the currency market right now depends on Donald Trump's policies—not only in terms of trade. Positive news may still emerge from the U.S., but the market remains focused on the prevailing uncertainty in the economy, Trump's contradictory decisions, and the hostile, protectionist stance of the White House. As a result, the dollar must work very hard to convert even good news into increased market demand, which it currently fails to achieve.

The GBP/USD rate remained nearly unchanged throughout Wednesday and rose slightly today. However, another fact is more important. After the Bank of England released the results of its fourth meeting this year, demand for the British pound began to rise again. I wouldn't say that the pound's strengthening is due to the Bank of England's decisions, since the interest rate was left unchanged and one-third of the MPC committee voted in favor of a rate cut. Therefore, a decline in demand for the pound would have been more expected.

It is worth noting that the current wave pattern does not suggest a significant decline in the instrument. Two essential corrective waves have already formed, meaning that the upward movement may continue. There is no news actively supporting the U.S. currency. Neither the Fed nor the Bank of England has made any decisions clearly signaling the market to buy dollars. Inflation remains high in the UK, while in the U.S. it is lower, but has been rising in recent months. As such, both central banks may remain on the sidelines in upcoming meetings. In light of this, the news backdrop remains the same—one that has led to a 15-cent decline in the dollar over the past five months.

I still believe that only the end of the Global Trade War could reverse the current trend. Jerome Powell is absolutely right in saying that no conclusions should be drawn until there is clarity on final import tariffs. Only when the market begins to understand that Trump has defined the final tariffs to be in place for the next several years, and signed trade agreements with specific countries, can we expect increased demand for the U.S. dollar.

This image is no longer relevant

General conclusions

The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulsive segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, the markets could still face many shocks and reversals that might significantly affect the wave pattern. But for now, the working scenario remains intact, and Trump continues to do everything to reduce demand for the dollar. The targets for bullish wave 3 lie near the 1.3708 level, which corresponds to 200.0% Fibonacci relative to the presumed global wave 2. Therefore, I continue to consider buy positions, as the market shows no intention of reversing the trend.

On the higher wave scale, the wave structure has transformed. We can now assume the formation of a bullish trend segment, which at this point appears incomplete. For now, we can only expect a further rise.

Core principles of my analysis:

  1. Wave structures should be simple and clear. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often subject to change.
  2. If you are unsure about what's happening in the market, it's better not to enter.
  3. There is never 100% certainty about market direction. Always use protective Stop Loss orders.
  4. Wave analysis can be combined with other forms of analysis and trading strategies.
Chin Zhao,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Summary
Urgency
Analytic
Alexander Dneprovskiy
Start trade
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD Analysis on July 10, 2025

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse structure. The wave picture closely resembles that of EUR/USD because the dollar remains the main driver

Chin Zhao 21:36 2025-07-10 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on July 10, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has not changed for several consecutive months. The formation of the upward trend section continues, while the news background still supports

Chin Zhao 21:33 2025-07-10 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on July 9, 2025

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward impulse wave pattern. The wave picture closely resembles that of EUR/USD, since the U.S. dollar remains

Chin Zhao 21:01 2025-07-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on July 9, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has remained unchanged for several consecutive months. The formation of the upward trend section continues, while the news background continues

Chin Zhao 20:56 2025-07-09 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on July 8, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained consistent for several months. The upward trend segment continues to form, and the news backdrop continues to support all currencies

Chin Zhao 20:00 2025-07-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on July 8, 2025

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse structure. The wave pattern is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD, as the U.S. dollar remains

Chin Zhao 19:46 2025-07-08 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on July 7, 2025

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse wave pattern. The wave picture is nearly identical to that of EUR/USD because the sole factor

Chin Zhao 20:08 2025-07-07 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on July 7, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour EUR/USD chart has remained unchanged for several months. The formation of an upward trend segment continues, and the news background continues to support

Chin Zhao 20:05 2025-07-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD Analysis on July 2, 2025

The wave pattern for GBP/USD continues to suggest the formation of an upward impulsive wave sequence. The wave pattern closely resembles that of EUR/USD, since the U.S. dollar remains

Chin Zhao 20:33 2025-07-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD Analysis on July 2, 2025

The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD continues to indicate the formation of an upward trend segment. The trade war initiated by Donald Trump was intended to boost

Chin Zhao 20:31 2025-07-02 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.