Forex Analysis & Reviews: 19.06.2025 - USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips...

19.06.2025 08:10 PM

USD/JPY: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 19th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Advice for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 145.19 price level in the first half of the day coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to rise from the zero line, confirming a correct entry point for buying the dollar and resulting in a 70-point increase.

Today is a public holiday in the U.S., and there are no fundamental statistics available, so there are few reasons for the dollar to continue its upward movement. However, this does not imply a complete pause in currency market activity. Rather, a reduction in volatility and a shift in focus toward technical analysis and trader sentiment should be expected. In such conditions, even minor news or speculative movements can have an outsized impact on the dollar's exchange rate. Moreover, the absence of U.S. traders does not mean there will be no trading at all. European and Asian markets remain active, and their actions may put pressure on the dollar. Also, Trump's statements about the Middle East may trigger sudden yen selling and dollar buying.

As for the intraday strategy, I will rely primarily on Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to buy USD/JPY today upon reaching the entry point around 145.94 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to 146.57 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 146.57, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction, targeting a 30–35 point move in the opposite direction from the level. A solid rise in the pair today is more likely after statements from Trump.Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to rise.

Scenario #2:I also plan to buy USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 145.40 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. A rise toward 145.94 and 146.57 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1:I plan to sell USD/JPY today after a breakout below 145.40 (red line on the chart), which would likely lead to a sharp drop in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 144.58, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20–25 point reversal. Downward pressure on the pair is unlikely to return today.Important! Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline.

Scenario #2:I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 145.94 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward 145.40 and 144.58 can be expected.

Chart Guide:

Thin green line – Entry price for long positions
Thick green line – Approximate price to set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further growth is unlikely above this level
Thin red line – Entry price for short positions
Thick red line – Approximate price to set Take Profit or manually fix profits, as further decline is unlikely below this level
MACD Indicator – It's important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market

Important:Beginner Forex traders must exercise great caution when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market ahead of important fundamental reports to avoid getting caught in sharp price swings. If you choose to trade during news releases, always use stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you may quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you trade large volumes without money management.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous decisions based on current market behavior is an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.