empty
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
InstaForex - Official partner of Dragon Racing
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
19.06.2025 12:42 AM
The Dollar Is Caught in a Vicious Cycle
Open trading account Open demo account

The U.S. dollar has become an outcast—not just globally, but even at home. The White House supports everything from stock indices to Bitcoin and even gold through policy uncertainty. Yet Donald Trump and his team are ignoring the over 9% drop in the USD Index since the start of the year. The last time the greenback fell this fast was in 2010 when the Federal Reserve aggressively printed money to help the U.S. economy recover from the global financial crisis.

U.S. officials, including the President, continue to talk about a strong dollar—just like their predecessors—but they do nothing to stop its decline. There are growing rumors that the U.S. needs a weaker dollar to restore manufacturing capacity and improve its trade balance. Washington is reportedly pressuring other countries in trade negotiations to allow their currencies to strengthen. This strategy is risky.

Dynamics of Foreign Holdings of Treasuries and the USD

This image is no longer relevant

After years of budget deficits, the U.S. government now requires around $4 trillion annually to fund its operations. This gap is being filled through the issuance of Treasury securities, which foreign investors have traditionally purchased. However, if the U.S. dollar weakens against their home currencies, these investors may lose interest in treasuries and start selling them off. This creates a vicious cycle of dumping all things American—a pattern visible in the divergence between the USD Index and foreign-held U.S. Treasury reserves.

A hawkish surprise from the Fed—something EUR/USD bulls are wary of—might sweeten the pill for the dollar, but it won't be enough to break the upward trend in the main currency pair. Hedge funds and asset managers understand this all too well, and they continue to increase their net short positions on the greenback.

Speculative Positioning in the U.S. Dollar

This image is no longer relevant

The U.S. dollar is gaining support due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. No, the greenback hasn't regained its safe-haven status. Investors fled from it, seeing the U.S. as the root of all global troubles. However, this time, the issues stem from Israel and Iran—outside of the U.S. So why not, out of old habit, buy the dollar again?

This image is no longer relevant

It's also worth noting that rising oil prices could stoke inflation not just in the U.S. but also in the eurozone. As a result, the European Central Bank may be forced to end its monetary easing cycle sooner than markets currently expect—something that would benefit the euro.

Technical Picture: EUR/USD Daily Chart

From a technical standpoint, EUR/USD shows a tug-of-war between bulls and bears at the upper boundary of its fair value range of 1.123–1.150. If bulls hold this level, buying the pair in the market becomes viable again. Conversely, if the euro consolidates below 1.150, it may signal an opportunity to initiate short positions.

Marek Petkovich,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Technical analysis
Technical Analysis for the Week of June 23–28: GBP/USD Currency Pair Last week, the pair moved downward and tested the 14.6% pullback level at 1.3392 (red dashed line), after which the price rebounded and closed the weekly candle at 1.3446
Stefan Doll
11:38 2025-06-23 +02:00
1015
Technical analysis
Technical Analysis for the Week of June 23–28: EUR/USD Currency Pair Last week, the pair moved downward and tested the 76.4% pullback level at 1.1452 (red dashed line), after which the price rebounded and closed the weekly candle at 1.1520
Stefan Doll
11:31 2025-06-23 +02:00
1060
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Market fears retaliation

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. Since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict, the market seems to have largely ignored the severity of the situation. Investor reaction
Marek Petkovich 10:36 2025-06-23 UTC+2

The U.S. Joins the Iran-Israel War. What's Next for the Markets? (Limited downside potential for #NDX and #SPX contracts possible)

The United States could not abandon its satellite and Middle Eastern proxy—Israel—to face Iran alone. On Sunday, it struck Iran's nuclear facilities, though these strikes failed to achieve their objectives
Pati Gani 09:51 2025-06-23 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 23? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

A significant number of macroeconomic reports are set for Monday, though they share a similar nature. Business activity indices for June's services and manufacturing sectors will be released in Germany
Paolo Greco 06:51 2025-06-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 23: Geopolitics vs. Economy

The GBP/USD currency pair traded sluggishly throughout Friday, but one technical factor is worth noting: the price failed to consolidate above the moving average. Thus, technical analysis currently suggests
Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-06-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 23: The U.S. Has Officially Entered the War Against Iran

The EUR/USD currency pair traded with minimal volatility and no clear direction throughout Friday. The upward trend remains intact without any doubt. However, a significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar
Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-06-23 UTC+2

US-EU Negotiations on the Verge of Collapse

As anticipated, this phrase can describe nearly every action taken by Donald Trump. I have consistently argued that the core of any negotiations involving Trump comes down to this
Chin Zhao 00:13 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Iran Preparing a "Long-Term Response" to the US

Only a few hours have passed since the overnight airstrike by American bombers on Iranian nuclear facilities—and already, missiles are flying in the opposite direction. However, they are not targeting
Chin Zhao 00:13 2025-06-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Prepare for Price Turbulence

The economic calendar for the upcoming week is packed with important releases and events. However, all of them will be overshadowed by geopolitical developments—or rather, one specific event that took
Irina Manzenko 00:13 2025-06-23 UTC+2

U.S. Dollar: Weekly Preview

The United States brings many important economic events. Additionally, as I have mentioned several times, the ongoing war in the Middle East could greatly influence market sentiment. As a result
Chin Zhao 00:12 2025-06-23 UTC+2

British Pound: Weekly Preview

The dynamics of the British pound will also not be driven by the pound itself or domestic UK news. The reasons are the same: the U.S. involvement in the Middle
Chin Zhao 00:12 2025-06-23 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 21:00 2025-06-23 UTC--5
EUR/USD Forecast for June 23, 2025
05:00 2025-06-23
Technical analysis
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-23 UTC--5
EUR/USD Overview – June 23: The U.S. Has Officially Entered the War Against Iran
03:50 2025-06-23
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 19:00 2025-06-23 UTC--5
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on June 23: Euro Maintains Upward Trend
03:50 2025-06-23
Trading plan
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-06-24 UTC--5
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on June 23
08:34 2025-06-23
Forecast
Relevance up to 01:00 2025-06-24 UTC--5
EUR/USD: Simple Trading Tips for Beginner Traders on June 23. Analysis of Yesterday's Forex Trades
08:41 2025-06-23
Forecast
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.