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10.06.2025 10:27 AM
The ECB Is Ready to Wait
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The euro and the pound remain within a range against the U.S. dollar, experiencing some pressure following the first day of negotiations between China and the U.S. However, in addition to this high-profile meeting — currently in the spotlight — interviews with several European officials also took place yesterday, during which the topic of interest rates was addressed.

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According to Governing Council member Peter Kazimir, the European Central Bank has almost completed its cycle of interest rate cuts. "Looking ahead, I still see clear downside risks to growth, as well as uncertainty about future price dynamics," said Kazimir, who also heads Slovakia's central bank.

This statement, made against the backdrop of inflation control and slowing economic growth in the eurozone, naturally drew the attention of traders and economists. Investors closely monitoring every signal from the ECB are now wondering whether this marks the actual end of the rate-cutting phase and the start of a new era of tighter monetary policy.

However, Kazimir's words leave room for interpretation. Has the cycle fully ended? Or are minor adjustments still possible? The answers to these questions directly affect forecasts for inflation, GDP growth, and, of course, the euro's value. Markets hungry for cheaper money will be closely watching the potential implications of a policy shift at the ECB.

Let us recall that last week the ECB cut the deposit rate to 2%, stating that inflation, which fell to 1.9% in May, is now close to its target. Speaking to reporters afterward, ECB President Christine Lagarde said the bank's policy is well-positioned to navigate the uncertainty expected to arise from global trade dynamics and rising expenditures across Europe.

Kazimir added that incoming data over the summer will provide a clearer picture and help the ECB decide whether further fine-tuning is needed. "We cut rates to reach neutral territory without jeopardizing our ability to respond to any resurgence in inflation," he wrote.

It is worth noting that many ECB policymakers share Kazimir's view. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel recently stated that she sees a favorable opportunity to strengthen the euro's global role as investors increasingly turn their attention to Europe. "A window of opportunity has opened to enhance the international role of the euro," she said. Schnabel also noted signs that investors are focusing on the continent to diversify their portfolios, calling it a positive effect of increased confidence.

These remarks reinforce comments from other officials, including President Christine Lagarde, and show how policymakers are trying to turn U.S. President Donald Trump's attacks on global trade and American institutions to their advantage. Recall that many investors have been exiting the U.S. dollar this year, significantly weakening its position on the global stage against all other major currencies.

Technical Outlook: EUR/USD

For EUR/USD, buyers now need to push through the 1.1430 level. Only then will a test of 1.1460 become realistic. From there, the pair could aim for 1.1490, but doing so without support from large players may prove difficult. The furthest target would be the 1.1530 high. In the event of a decline, significant buying interest is expected only around 1.1390. If no buyers emerge there, it would be preferable to wait for a new low at 1.1361 or consider long positions from 1.1314.

Technical Outlook: GBP/USD

For GBP/USD, pound buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3545. Only then can they aim for 1.3580, which will be difficult to surpass. The furthest target would be the 1.3615 level. If the pair falls, bears will attempt to regain control at 1.3500. A successful breach of this range would deal a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3470 low, with a possible move toward 1.3450.

Jakub Novak,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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