empty
31.01.2023 09:07 AM
USD/JPY: US dollar latches on Fed rate increase expectations

This image is no longer relevant

The US dollar tries to take advantage of the upcoming interest rate hike in the US. On Monday, USD/JPY rose by 0.7% and hit the high of 130.5.

The current week will be a very busy one for FX traders. Several central banks will have policy meeting in the next few days, which could dramatically alter the balance of power for major currency pairs.

Tomorrow's Fed monetary policy meeting should be a deciding factor for USD/JPY. Many experts think that dollar bulls will not miss the opportunity to take advantage of it.

Over the past several months, there has been speculation that the Fed might soon roll back or pause its hawkish monetary policy. As a result, DXY lost 1.3% in January alone.

Analysts say traders have already fully priced in the risk of a possible cut by the US central bank. Recently, the dollar has strongly declined against all major currencies and now appears to be oversold.

At its February meeting the Fed is definitely unlikely to hit the brakes and will continue to follow a hawkish course. This means that the US dollar has a real chance to increase against some currencies in the short term.

USD/JPY might actually benefit from tomorrow's rate hike in the US. Most likely, bulls will try to take maximum advantage of an increased monetary policy gap between the US and Japan once again.

This image is no longer relevant

Traders now expect the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes again and raise the rate by only 25 bps. But even such a minimal step can undermine the position of the slightly weakened yen.

The Japanese currency has been showing signs of weakness against the dollar lately, as its upside momentum has almost run out.

The market has not stopped expecting a hawkish reversal of the Bank of Japan. Many investors have realized that BOJ will not change its policy as long as Haruhiko Kuroda is still in charge.

"Kuroda's defiance and pattern of surprising markets and going against the consensus means we may not get any policy changes at his final meeting in March, and instead leave it to his successor to tighten policy," analyst Matt Simpson noted.

Analysts still see excellent upside potential for the yen in the medium term, but believe that JPY will likely slide down in the very near future.

Bloomberg commented that the US dollar has broken out of the downtrend it has been in against the yen since October, giving USD the opportunity to advance against JPY.

At this stage, USD/JPY traders will need to figure out the Fed's next move. If the rhetoric of the US central bank tomorrow is more hawkish and rumors of a possible pause in the tightening cycle prove to be unfounded, the pair will rise.

If the opposite is the case, USD/JPY might fall sharply and test its recent lows.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY

Despite its recent rally, USD/JPY is currently trading below the 20-day EMA, which is located at 130.57. To continue the uptrend, the pair needs to surpass the EMA, which is used to gauge short-term bias.

Technical indicators such as RoC and RSI are also signaling a possible upward movement as well. The rate of change shows that bulls are gaining momentum and the Relative Strength Index is about to turn bullish.

Аlena Ivannitskaya,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

取消的交易,新信函——正邁向貿易混亂?6月7日至9日交易員日曆

象徵性地說,正是在 7 月 4 日獨立日,唐納德·特朗普簽署了他自己稱之為的「美麗的大法案」,根據白宮的說法,這將「履行競選承諾」。然而,現實中,這份文件可能標誌著财政不負責任的新時代的開始。

Svetlana Radchenko 14:07 2025-07-07 UTC+2

7月7日美國市場新聞摘要

唐納德·特朗普批准了一項立法,將新的聯邦債務上限定為5萬億美元,同時增加政府支出。 這份文件包括減稅和加強安全措施,但在國會引發爭議,尤其是在對赤字上升感到擔憂的民主黨人中。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 13:27 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Wedbush 的高級分析師 Dan Ives 評論說,馬斯克一直是 Tesla 最大的資產。然而,他對政治的深入參與可能會產生新的干擾,進而影響到公司的股票表現。

Thomas Frank 10:40 2025-07-07 UTC+2

S&P、Nasdaq 和道瓊斯指數同步上揚,市場消化就業數據與貿易發展

華爾街再創新高 美股周四收盤再創歷史新高。儘管短期內降息的可能性較低,但投資者熱烈回應美國就業數據意外激增和Nvidia股票持續上漲。

13:11 2025-07-04 UTC+2

7月4日美國市場新聞摘要

S&P 500和納斯達克股票指數分別上漲了0.83%和1.02%,創下歷史新高。 但由於對可能引入新關稅的擔憂,指數期貨回落,這增加了全球市場的不確定性。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:45 2025-07-04 UTC+2

S&P、Nasdaq、道瓊斯指數齊升,市場因就業和貿易政策驚喜作出反應

週四,美國市場再創新高,投資者對近期降息的微弱希望不再寄予厚望,相反,他們對意外強勁的美國就業報告顯露出信心。同時,Nvidia的驚人增長仍在繼續,使這家芯片製造商更接近於達到歷史性的估值里程碑。

Thomas Frank 08:23 2025-07-04 UTC+2

什麼因素可能影響美元走勢:非農就業數據、美聯儲行動,還是「大而美的法案」?

華爾街不斷刷新紀錄。週三,由資訊科技巨頭推動的標普500指數再次創下新高。

Svetlana Radchenko 13:17 2025-07-03 UTC+2

7月3日美國市場新聞摘要

由於對科技股的持續需求以及美國與越南關於關稅的貿易協議獲得積極反饋,S&P 500 指數再次達到歷史新高。 投資者將此視為美國地緣經濟地位的強化,進一步增強了對美國股市前景的信心。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:58 2025-07-03 UTC+2

股票波動:納斯達克上升,S&P 上漲,道瓊斯下跌 — 背後另有原因

美國股市指數S&P 500和Nasdaq在週三收於歷史新高,主要由科技股的強勁上漲和美國與越南達成的新貿易協議推動。該協議幫助緩解了投資者對持續的全球貿易緊張局勢的擔憂。

Thomas Frank 10:28 2025-07-03 UTC+2

7月2日美國市場新聞摘要

S&P 500指數下跌0.11%,納斯達克100指數下跌0.82%,而道瓊斯指數則上漲0.91%。投資者正在等待宏觀經濟數據的發布,這些數據可能會影響美聯儲的下一步政策決策。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:32 2025-07-02 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.