25.06.202613:24:57UTC+00Dollar Rally Pauses

The dollar index hovered around 101.6 on Thursday, taking a breather after a recent rally that pushed it to its highest level since early 2025 in the previous session. Investors are weighing a fresh set of US economic data alongside a continued slide in oil prices—now back to pre-conflict levels—and what these developments mean for the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The latest US PCE inflation figures were broadly in line with expectations. Although inflation remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, the data eased worries about a sharper-than-expected pickup in price pressures. At the same time, first-quarter GDP growth was revised higher and personal spending accelerated in May, indicating that consumer demand remains robust. Against this backdrop, traders have slightly pared back expectations for additional Fed tightening, though markets are still pricing in at least one rate increase this year. The implied probability of a Fed rate hike in September slipped to 63%, from 68% the day before.